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Trabzonspor 3–3 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Sansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win38%2.58
Trabzonspor win34%2.78
Draw27%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas +053%1.88
Trabzonspor +047%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas
6'🟨Orkun Kökçü · Besiktas
18'⚽Tammy Abraham · Besiktas
22'⚽Václav Černý · Besiktas
25'⚽Ernest Muçi · Trabzonspor
31'⚽Václav Černý · Besiktas
33'🟨Mustafa Eskihellaç · Trabzonspor
38'🟥El Bilal Touré · Besiktas
63'⚽Christ Inao Oulaï · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Ersin Destanoğlu · Besiktas
84'⚽Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor
89'🟨Tiago Djaló · Besiktas
90'🟨Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Tammy Abraham · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
34Shots9
13On target5
7Corners1
7Fouls8
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
coach days288.00347.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.463.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.61
elo1695.201625.17
elo momentum (last 5)27.078.19
eye test v10.951.28
eye trend v1-0.050.34
first sub minute (last 10)56.8053.50
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.870.73
league points41.0030.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank5.0013.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2081.20
possession avg (last 5)55.8053.60
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.300.22
season ppg2.281.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.806.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.8018.40
skill v11.010.85
solidity v1-0.480.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)7.106.00
sot for avg (last 3)8.679.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.207.00
squad age27.1628.92
state index0.810.62
sterile dominance v10.19-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.330.30
threat rate (last 3)0.330.39
threat rate (last 5)0.300.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.611.07
xg for avg (last 5)1.892.08