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Rizespor 3–0 Eyupspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Yigit Arslan, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win53%1.87
Draw25%3.75
Eyupspor win22%4.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.553%1.88
Eyupspor −0.547%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Halil Akbunar · Eyupspor
45'⚽ (pen)Qazim Laci · Rizespor
52'⚽Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
58'🟨Qazim Laci · Rizespor
74'🟨Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
81'⚽Ali Sowe · Rizespor
84'🟨Serdar Gürler · Eyupspor
86'🟨Taylan Antalyalı · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots7
6On target0
3Corners3
20Fouls16
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporEyupspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.530.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days134.00134.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.440.52
elo1484.511464.66
elo momentum (last 5)-7.74-6.26
eye test v1-0.500.17
eye trend v10.000.30
first sub minute (last 10)59.1059.60
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v1—0.79
league points16.0017.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8050.60
rest days6.907.00
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg0.890.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.201.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.40
skill v10.200.21
solidity v1-1.150.40
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
state index-0.49-0.33
sterile dominance v10.410.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.821.28
xg for avg (last 5)1.221.33