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Goztep 1–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win45%2.18
Draw29%3.30
Trabzonspor win26%3.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep −0.2553%1.86
Trabzonspor −0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Novatus Miroshi · Goztep
31'🟨Héliton · Goztep
43'🟨Janderson · Goztep
45'🟨Ozan Tufan · Trabzonspor
46'⚽Ernest Muçi · Trabzonspor
73'🟨Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
75'🟨Rhaldney · Goztep
76'⚽Ernest Muçi · Trabzonspor
78'🟥Wagner Pina · Trabzonspor
85'⚽Anthony Junior Dennis · Goztep
87'🟨André Onana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots18
8On target6
7Corners4
19Fouls7
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.730.64
cards avg (last 5)1.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
· Trabzonspor
90'🟨Rhaldney · Goztep
90'🟥Rhaldney · Goztep
coach days767.00281.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.753.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1609.701685.66
elo momentum (last 5)36.5429.63
eye test v1-0.510.93
eye trend v1-0.23-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)65.1055.90
form points (last 5)13.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.860.86
league points32.0038.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.0085.80
possession avg (last 5)39.0054.60
rest days7.138.00
scorer concentration0.350.33
season ppg1.882.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.8015.80
skill v1-1.431.01
solidity v10.44-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.906.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.20
squad age—27.16
state index0.860.84
sterile dominance v1-1.510.29
threat rate (last 10)0.320.31
threat rate (last 3)0.330.33
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.091.52
xg for avg (last 5)1.171.82