← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Ali Yilmaz, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Karagumruk win | 26% | 3.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Genclerbirligi −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Marius Tresor Doh · Karagumruk |
| 29' | ⚽ | Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi |
| 40' | 🟨 | Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi |
| 65' | ⚽ | Sekou Koita · Genclerbirligi |
| 74' | ⚽ | Metehan Mimaroğlu · Genclerbirligi |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ivo Grbić · Karagumruk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 371.00 |
| venue | Eryaman Stadium |
| 97.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1412.10 | 1431.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.45 | 1.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 8.77 | 6.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.23 |