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Samsunspor 1–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Kadir Saglam, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor win54%1.82
Draw27%3.63
Alanyaspor win20%4.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor −0.554%1.82
Alanyaspor −0.546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Anthony Musaba · Samsunspor
38'🟨Emre Kılınç · Samsunspor
44'🟨Eyüp Aydın · Samsunspor
47'🟨Ümit Akdağ · Alanyaspor
69'🟨Logi Tomasson · Samsunspor
90'🟥Josafat Mendes · Samsunspor
90'🟨Gaius Makouta · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Güven Yalçın · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots10
1On target4
3Corners1
28Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSamsunsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
box share (last 5)0.640.57
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSamsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu
coach days122.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.03
corner diff avg (last 5)2.605.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.407.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.413.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.600.52
elo1622.061513.59
elo momentum (last 5)26.14-37.22
eye test v10.91-0.24
eye trend v10.08-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)62.1060.90
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.72—
league points25.0016.00
league rank8.0013.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0084.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8054.60
rest days3.888.13
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg1.791.00
shot diff avg (last 5)4.202.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.4014.60
skill v10.550.31
solidity v11.050.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
state index0.82-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.290.27
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.310.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.871.11
xg for avg (last 5)1.940.85