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Trabzonspor 3–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Akarsu, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win61%1.58
Draw23%4.10
Konyaspor win16%6.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −151%1.92
Trabzonspor −149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.63
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽ (og)Okay Yokuşlu · Konyaspor
43'⚽ (pen)Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
50'⚽Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
55'🟨Jackson Muleka · Konyaspor
56'⚽Ernest Muçi · Trabzonspor
76'🟨Christ Inao Oulaï · Trabzonspor
76'🟨Guilherme Haubert Sityá · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots16
8On target4
3Corners3
15Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.660.51
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
coach days273.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.805.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.809.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.444.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.15
dominance (last 5)0.440.64
elo1679.731496.33
elo momentum (last 5)18.37-41.05
eye test v10.54-0.07
eye trend v1-0.37-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)51.4054.90
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.810.53
league points35.0019.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4084.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0059.00
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.320.40
season ppg2.191.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.007.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6017.00
skill v10.650.57
solidity v1-0.130.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age27.43—
state index0.62-0.49
sterile dominance v10.470.42
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.661.30
xg for avg (last 5)1.411.01