⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gaziantep 2–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Oguzhan Cakir, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win42%2.20
Rizespor win32%2.95
Draw26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.2552%1.83
Gaziantep −0.2548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.73
Under45%2.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Mohamed Bayo · Gaziantep
21'🟨Melih Kabasakal · Gaziantep
29'⚽Ali Sowe · Rizespor
31'🟨Zafer Görgen · Gaziantep
59'⚽ (og)Kévin Rodrigues · Rizespor
70'🟨Taha Şahin · Rizespor
74'⚽Kévin Rodrigues · Gaziantep
90'🟨Taylan Antalyalı · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
9On target3
3Corners2
14Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.570.60
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
coach days68.0099.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.371.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.600.48
elo1527.341498.87
elo momentum (last 5)14.193.04
eye test v11.02-0.00
eye trend v1-0.00-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)50.8059.30
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.680.71
league points21.0014.00
league rank7.0013.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)60.0051.60
rest days4.774.77
scorer concentration0.230.33
season ppg1.621.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)18.0014.20
skill v11.190.51
solidity v1-0.260.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.80
squad age31.06—
state index0.17-0.16
sterile dominance v10.510.13
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.251.11
xg for avg (last 5)1.671.46