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Besiktas 2–3 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Yilmaz, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win45%2.10
Besiktas win29%3.20
Draw26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +0.2551%1.85
Besiktas +0.2549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Kerem Aktürkoğlu · Fenerbahce
5'⚽El Bilal Touré · Besiktas
22'⚽Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas
26'🟥Orkun Kökçü · Besiktas
32'⚽İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
35'🟨Nélson Semedo · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Marco Asensio · Fenerbahce
68'🟨Edson Álvarez · Fenerbahce
83'🟨Jhon Durán · Fenerbahce
83'⚽Jhon Durán · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Emirhan Topçu

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
9Shots23
3On target11
1Corners6
8Fouls17
1Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.790.57
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTupras Stadium
· Besiktas
90'🟨İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
coach days305.00124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.331.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.02
dominance (last 5)0.540.56
elo1616.981807.20
elo momentum (last 5)9.7218.81
eye test v10.641.14
eye trend v1-0.090.75
first sub minute (last 10)60.0060.00
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.730.85
league points22.0023.00
league rank6.004.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2049.20
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.360.40
season ppg1.692.09
shot diff avg (last 5)0.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8015.00
skill v10.570.34
solidity v11.250.76
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.906.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.679.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.80
squad age29.6129.48
state index0.291.14
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.46
threat rate (last 5)0.270.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.780.99
xg for avg (last 5)2.071.77