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Samsunspor 1–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Oct 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Cihan Aydin, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor win50%1.97
Draw27%3.47
Rizespor win23%4.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor −0.550%1.98
Rizespor −0.550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%2.00
Over50%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Carlo Holse · Samsunspor
43'⚽Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Rizespor
72'🟨Attila Mocsi · Rizespor
90'🟨Muhamed Buljubašić · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
26Shots8
7On target1
7Corners4
9Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSamsunsporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.700.47
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSamsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu
coach days87.0087.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.071.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1600.521487.65
elo momentum (last 5)43.013.15
eye test v1-0.11-0.26
eye trend v10.330.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.8055.20
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.10
keeper form v1—0.67
league points17.0010.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)41.4050.80
rest days3.925.00
scorer concentration0.400.30
season ppg1.700.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.20
skill v1-0.320.21
solidity v10.960.51
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index0.75-0.19
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.130.79
xg for avg (last 5)1.611.25