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Gaziantep 0–4 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Oct 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win58%1.65
Draw23%4.10
Gaziantep win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +0.7552%1.84
Gaziantep +0.7548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.73
Under45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
6'🟨Archie Brown · Fenerbahce
21'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
25'🟨Edson Álvarez · Fenerbahce
43'🟨Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce
47'🟨İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
72'🟨Deian Sorescu · Gaziantep
72'🟨Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce
81'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
86'🟥Myenty Abena · Gaziantep
87'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots20
5On target13
6Corners4
12Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.550.52
cards avg (last 5)4.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
Kévin Rodrigues
· Gaziantep
88'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
coach days56.00118.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.661.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.610.57
elo1534.201798.35
elo momentum (last 5)37.6713.49
eye test v10.781.02
eye trend v10.350.07
first sub minute (last 10)48.2060.20
form points (last 5)11.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.640.85
league points20.0020.00
league rank5.006.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0082.80
possession avg (last 5)59.0054.40
rest days8.134.01
scorer concentration0.230.36
season ppg1.822.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.4014.80
skill v11.040.81
solidity v10.681.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.806.40
squad age31.0629.23
state index0.711.00
sterile dominance v10.46-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.350.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.950.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.721.80