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Genclerbirligi 1–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win41%2.40
Genclerbirligi win30%3.39
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi +0.2552%1.98
Konyaspor +0.2548%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.88
Over47%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Jo Jin-ho · Konyaspor
28'⚽Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi
45'⚽Umut Nayir · Konyaspor
49'⚽Enis Bardhi · Konyaspor
68'🟨Dimitris Goutas · Genclerbirligi
78'🟨Thalisson Kelven · Genclerbirligi
86'🟨Riechedly Bazoer · Konyaspor
90'🟨Thalisson Kelven · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Pedro Pereira · Genclerbirligi
90'🟥Thalisson Kelven · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots16
2On target6
6Corners5
11Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.40
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.570.58
cards avg (last 5)3.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadium
Morten Bjorlo · Konyaspor
coach days329.0086.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.10
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.584.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.21
dominance (last 5)0.360.54
elo1407.191522.67
elo momentum (last 5)29.84-7.49
eye test v1-0.570.18
eye trend v1-0.03-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)55.4056.60
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.63
h2 goals (last 10)—0.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.650.67
league points8.0015.00
league rank19.009.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.0010.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2081.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0050.80
rest days8.003.88
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg0.891.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2013.60
skill v1-0.860.10
solidity v1-0.19-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
state index-0.09-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.140.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.561.42
xg for avg (last 5)1.001.10