← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasin Kol, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk win | 43% | 2.29 |
| Kayserispor win | 31% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Karagumruk −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Kayserispor |
| 12' | 🟨 | Abdulsamet Burak · Kayserispor |
| 14' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Larsson · Karagumruk |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Karagumruk |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matías Kranevitter · Karagumruk |
| 67' | 🟨 | German Onugkha · Kayserispor |
| 68' | ⚽ | German Onugkha · Kayserispor |
| 74' | ⚽ | German Onugkha · Kayserispor |
| 79' | ⚽ | Atakan Çankaya · Karagumruk |
| 90' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karagumruk | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı |
| coach days | 53.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1430.43 | 1479.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.57 | -46.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.56 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.31 | -1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.28 |