← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 79% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.75 |
| Karagumruk win | 8% | 12.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce −1.75 | 52% | 1.95 |
| Karagumruk −1.75 | 48% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under | 34% | 3.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Atakan Çankaya · Karagumruk |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Fenerbahce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nene Dorgeles · Fenerbahce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Roco · Karagumruk |
| 55' | 🟨 | Anıl Yiğit Çınar · Karagumruk |
| 59' | ⚽ | Serginho · Karagumruk |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk |
| 83' | 🟥 | Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu |
| coach days | 110.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1789.77 | 1432.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.82 | -57.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.03 | — |
| state index | 0.88 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.02 |