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Gaziantep 3–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Erdem Mertoglu, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win53%1.79
Draw26%3.69
Antalyaspor win20%5.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.554%1.83
Antalyaspor −0.546%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%2.00
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Drissa Camara · Gaziantep
17'⚽Kacper Kozłowski · Gaziantep
28'🟨Abdülkadir Ömür · Antalyaspor
31'⚽Mohamed Bayo · Gaziantep
37'🟨Tomáš Čvančara · Antalyaspor
41'🟨Kévin Rodrigues · Gaziantep
45'🟨Soner Dikmen · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Ramzi Safuri · Antalyaspor
56'🟨Bachir Gueye · Antalyaspor
84'⚽Bachir Gueye · Antalyaspor
86'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
22Shots7
8On target4
6Corners5
11Fouls15
5Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.48
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.55
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
Bachir Gueye
· Antalyaspor
90'🟨Yusuf Kabadayi · Gaziantep
90'🟨Mustafa Burak Bozan · Gaziantep
90'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
90'🟨Arda Kızıldağ · Gaziantep
90'🟨Georgiy Dzhikiya · Antalyaspor
coach days48.0079.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.902.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.520.36
elo1527.451470.20
elo momentum (last 5)44.15-23.16
eye test v10.620.03
eye trend v1-0.08-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)47.4049.10
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.640.61
league points17.0013.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)52.8044.40
rest days14.0015.88
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.701.44
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.809.40
skill v10.40-0.47
solidity v10.14-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
squad age31.06—
state index0.59-0.70
sterile dominance v10.090.20
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.351.55
xg for avg (last 5)1.600.75