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Alanyaspor 1–0 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Yilmaz, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win35%2.86
Goztep win34%2.78
Draw31%3.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor +050%1.98
Goztep +050%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Furkan Bayır · Goztep
29'🟨Ianis Hagi · Alanyaspor
30'🟨Malcom Bokele · Goztep
53'🟨Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Janderson · Goztep
82'🟨Novatus Miroshi · Goztep
83'⚽Ümit Akdağ · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Salem Bouajila · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots11
5On target6
8Corners4
5Fouls13
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGAİN Park Stadyumu
coach days79.00718.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.071.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.04
dominance (last 5)0.460.59
elo1541.091591.17
elo momentum (last 5)-8.8329.94
eye test v10.330.29
eye trend v10.59-0.56
first sub minute (last 10)61.7063.00
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.760.81
league points11.0019.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8067.80
possession avg (last 5)41.8036.20
rest days15.1013.88
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg1.102.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.004.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8014.00
skill v1-0.35-1.19
solidity v1-0.761.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
state index-0.260.82
sterile dominance v1-0.57-2.20
threat rate (last 10)0.240.41
threat rate (last 3)0.340.38
threat rate (last 5)0.270.39
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.880.64
xg for avg (last 5)1.281.45