← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 41% | 2.33 |
| Kayserispor win | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor +0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Samsunspor +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Lionel Carole · Kayserispor |
| 25' | 🟨 | Anthony Musaba · Samsunspor |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tanguy Coulibaly · Samsunspor |
| 39' | 🟨 | Indrit Tuci · Kayserispor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 50' | 🟨 | Logi Tomasson · Samsunspor |
| 64' | ⚽ | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 72' | ⚽ | Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor |
| 83' | ⚽ | German Onugkha · Kayserispor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kadir Has Stadium |
| coach days | 79.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1493.78 | 1576.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.30 | 19.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 15.77 | 13.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.24 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.18 |