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Besiktas 1–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oguzhan Cakir, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win77%1.24
Draw15%6.72
Genclerbirligi win8%12.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −1.7552%1.91
Genclerbirligi −1.7548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.48
Under34%2.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

47'⚽Cengiz Ünder · Besiktas
48'🟨Pedro Pereira · Genclerbirligi
75'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas
79'⚽ (og)David Jurásek · Genclerbirligi
81'⚽Franco Tongya · Genclerbirligi
82'🟨Franco Tongya · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Tiago Djaló · Besiktas
90'🟨M'Baye Niang · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Erhan Erentürk · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots6
4On target2
5Corners4
21Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.800.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTupras Stadium
coach days
290.00
321.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.812.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.590.37
elo1620.901390.35
elo momentum (last 5)23.999.89
eye test v10.73-0.35
eye trend v10.400.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.6054.10
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.80—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.45—
keeper form v10.700.64
league points17.005.00
league rank7.0020.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2041.20
rest days13.8814.10
scorer concentration0.500.33
season ppg1.890.63
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-6.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.209.80
skill v10.53-0.64
solidity v10.91-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.80
squad age29.12—
state index0.65-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.951.51
xg for avg (last 5)1.801.11