← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oguzhan Cakir, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 39% | 2.63 |
| Karagumruk win | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk +0.25 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Gaziantep +0.25 | 45% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Nikoloz Ugrekhelidze · Karagumruk |
| 29' | 🟨 | Drissa Camara · Gaziantep |
| 29' | 🟨 | Arda Kızıldağ · Gaziantep |
| 44' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kacper Kozłowski · Gaziantep |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yusuf Kabadayi · Gaziantep |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karagumruk | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı |
| coach days | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1446.84 | 1512.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -65.39 | 42.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.30 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 31.06 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.53 |