← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Genclerbirligi win | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor +0.25 | 50% | 1.92 |
| Genclerbirligi +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.83 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Ianis Hagi · Alanyaspor |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ümit Akdağ · Alanyaspor |
| 22' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Genclerbirligi |
| 27' | 🟨 | Thalisson Kelven · Genclerbirligi |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ianis Hagi · Alanyaspor |
| 66' | ⚽ | Žan Žužek · Genclerbirligi |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · Genclerbirligi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Eryaman Stadium |
| coach days | 307.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1387.65 | 1543.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.95 | 2.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 5.77 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.38 |