← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 68% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.02 |
| Kayserispor win | 12% | 7.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor −1.25 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Kayserispor −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dorukhan Toköz · Kayserispor |
| 53' | ⚽ | Felipe Augusto · Trabzonspor |
| 56' | ⚽ | Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bilal Bayazit · Kayserispor |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 17 |
| 12 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| coach days | 216.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1632.81 | 1503.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.59 | -23.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.37 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.96 |