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Antalyaspor 2–5 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozan Ergun, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win37%2.57
Antalyaspor win35%2.90
Draw29%3.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor +052%1.90
Antalyaspor +048%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.75
Over44%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Rizespor
9'⚽Václav Jurečka · Rizespor
13'⚽Soner Dikmen · Antalyaspor
21'🟨Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
48'⚽Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Rizespor
58'🟨Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
58'🟨Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
58'🟥Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
69'🟨Václav Jurečka · Rizespor
71'🟨Taha Şahin · Rizespor
86'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots14
7On target7
6Corners2
10Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.570.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.580.57
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
Altin Zeqiri
· Rizespor
89'⚽Tomáš Čvančara · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Altin Zeqiri · Rizespor
90'⚽Valentin Mihăilă · Rizespor
coach days63.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.402.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.310.45
elo1491.521474.51
elo momentum (last 5)-6.76-20.08
eye test v1-0.22-0.58
eye trend v1-0.03-0.59
first sub minute (last 10)53.0051.20
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.690.76
league points13.005.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)44.2048.80
rest days5.005.13
scorer concentration0.29—
season ppg1.630.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.8010.40
skill v1-0.61-0.09
solidity v1-0.750.28
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
state index-0.45-0.58
sterile dominance v10.360.27
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.24
threat rate (last 5)0.170.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.601.11
xg for avg (last 5)0.691.10