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Besiktas 3–1 Kocaelispor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 29, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win69%1.38
Draw18%5.34
Kocaelispor win13%7.82

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kocaelispor −1.553%1.80
Besiktas −1.547%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.61
Under39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Gökhan Değirmenci · Kocaelispor
4'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
10'🟨Aleksandar Jovanović · Kocaelispor
10'⚽Václav Černý · Besiktas
50'⚽Tayfur Bingöl · Kocaelispor
55'🟨Gökhan Sazdağı · Besiktas
64'🟨Rigoberto Rivas · Kocaelispor
90'🟨Serdar Dursun · Kocaelispor
90'⚽ (og)Oleksandr Syrota · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots6
6On target1
3Corners6
18Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKocaelispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.750.52
cards avg (last 5)2.003.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTupras Stadium
coach days
271.00
59.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.37—
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.620.41
elo1599.771468.69
elo momentum (last 5)1.52-25.83
eye test v10.55-0.57
eye trend v10.060.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.7039.50
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.55—
h2 goals (last 10)0.90—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.40—
keeper form v1—0.63
league points12.002.00
league rank10.0021.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8074.60
possession avg (last 5)58.2047.20
rest days5.008.13
scorer concentration0.57—
season ppg2.000.33
shot diff avg (last 5)6.00-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.009.80
skill v11.04-0.74
solidity v10.120.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.33
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age28.89—
state index0.45-0.81
sterile dominance v10.510.03
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.40—
xg against avg (last 5)1.210.94
xg for avg (last 5)2.000.72