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Karagumruk 3–4 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehmet Turkmen, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win46%2.14
Karagumruk win28%3.44
Draw27%3.63

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.2553%1.86
Karagumruk +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Felipe Augusto · Trabzonspor
28'⚽Tiago Çukur · Karagumruk
35'⚽Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
45'🟨Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk
45'🟨Atakan Çankaya · Karagumruk
45'⚽ (pen)Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
53'🟨Stefan Savić · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Daniel Johnson · Karagumruk
88'⚽Danylo Sikan · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Muhammed Kadioglu · Karagumruk
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
13Shots22
3On target11
1Corners7
18Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.22
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.490.56
cards avg (last 5)0.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
David Datro Fofana
· Karagumruk
90'⚽David Datro Fofana · Karagumruk
coach days26.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d5.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.372.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.07
dominance (last 5)0.550.52
elo1453.711625.93
elo momentum (last 5)-46.5611.27
eye test v1-0.66-0.52
eye trend v1-0.300.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.1048.40
form points (last 5)0.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.57
h2 goals (last 10)—0.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.66—
league points3.0014.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet20.003.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6081.20
possession avg (last 5)57.6047.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration—0.60
season ppg0.332.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.00
skill v10.12-0.08
solidity v10.270.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age—28.37
state index-1.180.43
sterile dominance v10.85-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.002.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.051.05
xg for avg (last 5)0.741.07