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Kayserispor 0–4 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Wed, Sep 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Adnan Deniz Kayatepe, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win58%1.79
Draw23%4.10
Kayserispor win19%5.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +155%1.90
Besiktas +145%2.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.62
Under40%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
24'🟨Nurettin Korkmaz · Kayserispor
32'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
45'⚽Tammy Abraham · Besiktas
49'🟨Dorukhan Toköz · Kayserispor
58'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
59'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
59'🟨Tammy Abraham · Besiktas
90'🟨Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor
90'🟨Necip Uysal · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
6Shots13
2On target9
4Corners5
17Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.530.70
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
coach days
54.00
266.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.430.57
elo1527.181580.67
elo momentum (last 5)-15.81-31.33
eye test v1-0.630.04
eye trend v10.03-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)56.1058.70
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.660.74
league points5.009.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet13.0011.00
matches since win11.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8060.80
rest days4.005.00
season ppg0.711.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.604.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2014.80
skill v1-0.611.19
solidity v1-0.73-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age—29.25
state index-0.82-0.23
sterile dominance v10.060.87
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.351.20
xg for avg (last 5)0.661.95