← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Cagdas Altay, Türkiye
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 54% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 |
| Karagumruk win | 20% | 4.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk −0.75 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Samsunspor −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Tiago Çukur · Karagumruk |
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Ľubomír Šatka · Karagumruk |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yunus Emre Çift · Samsunspor |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Anıl Yiğit Çınar · Samsunspor |
| 54' | ⚽ | Cherif Ndiaye · Samsunspor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anthony Musaba · Samsunspor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Karagumruk |
| 81' | ⚽ | David Datro Fofana · Karagumruk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anthony Musaba · Samsunspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu |
| coach days | 51.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1551.63 | 1459.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.51 | -41.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 1.13 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.76 |