⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Trabzonspor 1–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win55%1.74
Draw25%3.88
Gaziantep win20%4.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.7550%1.94
Trabzonspor −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.82
Under46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
39'⚽Kévin Rodrigues · Gaziantep
50'🟨Mustafa Eskihellaç · Trabzonspor
58'🟨Tayyip Talha Sanuç · Gaziantep
70'⚽Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
73'🟨Wagner Pina · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Enver Kulašin · Gaziantep
90'🟨Drissa Camara · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
27Shots4
6On target1
4Corners5
12Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.570.57
cards avg (last 5)1.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
coach days203.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.032.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.13
dominance (last 5)0.440.54
elo1630.751508.33
elo momentum (last 5)6.9332.54
eye test v1-0.94-0.03
eye trend v1-0.090.43
first sub minute (last 10)50.3048.50
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v1—0.67
league points13.0012.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)48.8049.60
rest days6.046.04
scorer concentration—0.17
season ppg2.171.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.002.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.8014.00
skill v1-0.090.13
solidity v10.59-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.80
squad age28.3731.06
state index0.380.37
sterile dominance v10.57-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.180.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.211.54
xg for avg (last 5)0.961.26