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Genclerbirligi 1–0 Eyupspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Omer Tolga Guldibi, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win40%2.43
Eyupspor win32%3.16
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor −0.2554%1.83
Genclerbirligi −0.2546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Matěj Hanousek · Genclerbirligi
36'⚽Franco Tongya · Genclerbirligi
40'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi
62'🟨Denis Drăguş · Eyupspor
90'🟨Pedro Pereira · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Mame Thiam · Eyupspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots20
4On target2
2Corners4
18Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiEyupspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.29
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.470.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadium
coach days293.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.062.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.450.40
elo1371.931461.49
elo momentum (last 5)-28.179.59
eye test v1-0.82-0.69
eye trend v10.150.18
first sub minute (last 10)53.7050.80
form points (last 5)0.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.82
h2 goals (last 10)—0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.570.79
league points0.005.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet20.002.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4082.60
possession avg (last 5)40.4047.40
rest days4.887.00
season ppg0.000.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.60
skill v1-0.70-0.06
solidity v1-0.06-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
state index-1.02-0.60
sterile dominance v1-0.530.28
threat rate (last 10)0.250.18
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.431.85
xg for avg (last 5)0.870.97