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Rizespor 1–0 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Kucuk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win58%1.74
Draw25%3.80
Genclerbirligi win17%6.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi −155%1.83
Rizespor −145%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi
47'🟨Ali Sowe · Rizespor
58'🟨Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
77'🟨Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
89'🟨Samed Onur · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Giannis Papanikolaou · Rizespor
90'⚽Emrecan Bulut · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots15
5On target4
4Corners7
22Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.720.55
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days45.00288.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.11—
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20—
corners against avg (last 5)5.20—
corners for avg (last 5)3.00—
corners volatility (last 10)3.461.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.11—
dominance (last 5)0.43—
elo1488.961377.35
elo momentum (last 5)-12.98-25.92
eye test v10.66-0.89
eye trend v1-0.73-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)52.7053.80
form points (last 5)4.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)2.101.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.50—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.650.52
league points1.000.00
league rank19.0021.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.0020.00
matches since win4.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0037.40
rest days15.9415.04
season ppg0.250.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00—
shots for avg (last 5)12.00—
skill v10.58-0.94
solidity v1-0.11-0.53
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.60
state index-0.33-1.18
sterile dominance v10.04-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.151.49
xg for avg (last 5)1.950.78