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Fenerbahce 1–0 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win67%1.48
Draw20%5.00
Trabzonspor win14%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −1.2550%1.95
Fenerbahce −1.2550%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Paul Onuachu · Trabzonspor
20'🟥Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
31'🟨Stefan Savić · Trabzonspor
41'🟨İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Bartuğ Elmaz · Fenerbahce
81'🟨Archie Brown · Fenerbahce
81'🟨Tim Jabol-Folcarelli · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
29Shots1
9On target1
9Corners0
12Fouls18
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.33—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.22—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.25—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.54—
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueChobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
coach days75.00197.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.250.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.02
dominance (last 5)0.650.54
elo1818.101634.70
elo momentum (last 5)-24.5725.52
eye test v10.59-0.31
eye trend v1-0.79-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.5051.40
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.670.72
league points7.0013.00
league rank10.003.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2086.00
possession avg (last 5)57.4054.00
rest days14.0013.90
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg2.332.60
shot diff avg (last 5)7.601.80
shots for avg (last 5)17.0011.60
skill v11.290.59
solidity v10.901.63
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age29.0228.37
state index0.940.81
sterile dominance v10.310.80
threat rate (last 10)0.330.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.900.65
xg for avg (last 5)2.001.18