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Goztep 1–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 29, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win54%1.79
Draw26%3.70
Konyaspor win20%4.85

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.7552%1.88
Goztep −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Furkan Bayır · Goztep
50'⚽Anthony Junior Dennis · Goztep
76'🟨Arda Kurtulan · Goztep
85'⚽Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Konyaspor
86'🟨Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Konyaspor
88'🟨Riechedly Bazoer · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots10
8On target2
5Corners6
17Fouls4
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
coach days667.0028.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.063.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.46
elo1563.381547.30
elo momentum (last 5)55.2922.26
eye test v10.360.26
eye trend v1-0.66-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)57.2056.30
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.710.78
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0081.20
possession avg (last 5)37.6043.80
rest days7.0012.10
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg2.333.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.0013.00
skill v1-0.99-0.05
solidity v10.670.21
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.80
state index0.720.34
sterile dominance v1-2.36-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.420.31
threat rate (last 3)0.380.28
threat rate (last 5)0.430.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.501.40
xg for avg (last 5)1.431.36