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Eyupspor 2–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardesler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor win44%2.47
Draw29%3.40
Alanyaspor win27%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.556%1.85
Eyupspor −0.544%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Fatih Aksoy · Alanyaspor
1'⚽Svit Sešlar · Eyupspor
20'🟨Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor
22'🟨Calegari · Eyupspor
25'🟨Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor
67'⚽ (pen)Florent Hadergjonaj · Alanyaspor
68'⚽Prince Ampem · Eyupspor
72'🟨Prince Ampem · Eyupspor
90'🟨Umut Bozok · Eyupspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots12
3On target2
0Corners5
19Fouls18
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEyupsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.640.60
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSiltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu
coach days24.0024.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.03
dominance (last 5)0.400.52
elo1451.911522.98
elo momentum (last 5)-31.7333.92
eye test v1-0.17-0.23
eye trend v10.410.30
first sub minute (last 10)51.2067.60
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v1—0.73
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6084.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0047.00
rest days7.908.90
season ppg0.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.20
skill v10.800.02
solidity v1-1.421.06
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index-0.890.45
sterile dominance v11.150.35
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.010.92
xg for avg (last 5)1.390.94