← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Turkmen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 73% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 16% | 5.92 |
| Kocaelispor win | 11% | 9.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor −1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fenerbahce −1.75 | 47% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under | 37% | 2.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce |
| 22' | ⚽ | Bruno Petković · Kocaelispor |
| 35' | 🟨 | Can Keleş · Kocaelispor |
| 46' | 🟨 | Tayfur Bingöl · Kocaelispor |
| 51' | ⚽ | Archie Brown · Fenerbahce |
| 55' | 🟨 | Show · Kocaelispor |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Fenerbahce |
| 66' | ⚽ | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu |
| coach days | 53.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | — |
| elo | 1849.15 | 1399.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.80 | -2.13 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 72.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 41.50 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | — |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 0.25 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.50 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 30.05 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.72 | 0.85 |