← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 |
| Goztep win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Goztep +0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 2.03 |
| Over | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep |
| -5' | 🟨 | İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep |
| -5' | 🟥 | İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep |
| 20' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
| 40' | 🟨 | Allan · Goztep |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jhon Durán · Fenerbahce |
| 43' | 🟨 | Arda Kurtulan · Goztep |
| 53' | 🟨 | Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce |
| 61' | 🟨 | Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep |
| 61' | 🟥 | Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce |
| 85' | 🟥 | Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce |
| 89' | 🟨 | Malcom Bokele · Goztep |
| 90' | 🟨 | Novatus Miroshi · Goztep |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Goztep | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu |
| coach days | 654.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1541.56 | 1817.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.27 | -5.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 1.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 30.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | — |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 29.70 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 2.46 |