β SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sat, Aug 16, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Z. Kucuk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 37% | 2.57 |
| Samsunspor win | 34% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.39 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kocaelispor +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Samsunspor +0 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | YΔ±ldΔ±z Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu |