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Kocaelispor 0–1 Samsunspor

← SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sat, Aug 16, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Z. Kucuk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kocaelispor win37%2.57
Samsunspor win34%2.86
Draw28%3.39

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kocaelispor +052%1.88
Samsunspor +048%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Celil Yüksel · Samsunspor
44'πŸŸ₯Samet YalΓ§Δ±n Β· Kocaelispor
63'🟨Show · Kocaelispor
81'🟨Joseph Nonge Boende · Kocaelispor
82'⚽ (og)Aleksandar JovanoviΔ‡ Β· Samsunspor
85'🟨Antoine Makoumbou · Samsunspor

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots13
5On target5
4Corners7
10Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKocaelisporSamsunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)β€”0.64
cards avg (last 5)0.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueYΔ±ldΔ±z Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu
coach days15.0015.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.16
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”0.20
corners against avg (last 5)β€”5.00
corners for avg (last 5)β€”5.20
corners volatility (last 10)β€”3.72
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.07
dominance (last 5)β€”0.59
elo1405.421596.95
elo momentum (last 5)-3.1134.66
eye test v1β€”0.74
eye trend v1β€”0.29
first sub minute (last 10)β€”60.50
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
keeper form v1β€”0.64
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”80.40
possession avg (last 5)β€”51.60
rest days4.907.00
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”5.40
shots for avg (last 5)β€”15.80
skill v1β€”0.36
solidity v1β€”1.02
sot against avg (last 5)β€”2.00
sot for avg (last 10)β€”4.40
sot for avg (last 3)β€”6.67
sot for avg (last 5)β€”5.60
squad age30.2928.39
state index-0.430.75
sterile dominance v1β€”0.04
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.23
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.26
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00
xg against avg (last 5)β€”1.16
xg for avg (last 5)β€”1.50