← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jun 1, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 75% | 49% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 27% | 6.35 | value: +73% |
| Kayserispor win | 9% | 23% | 11.00 | value: +157% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor −1.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Samsunspor −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.82 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Dimitris Kolovetsios · Kayserispor |
| 46' | ⚽ | Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emre Kılınç · Samsunspor |
| 76' | 🟨 | Zeki Yavru · Samsunspor |
| 76' | 🟨 | Baran Ali Gezek · Kayserispor |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arbnor Muja · Samsunspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Soner Aydoğdu · Samsunspor |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 8 |
| 14 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu |
| ⚽ |
| Arbnor Muja · Samsunspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 335.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1584.86 | 1575.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.78 | 0.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 73.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.11 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.15 |