← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, May 31, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 77% | 50% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 24% | 7.80 | value: +90% |
| Hatayspor win | 10% | 25% | 9.17 | value: +132% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hatayspor −2 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 82% | 1.17 |
| Under | 18% | 5.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Samet Akaydın · Rizespor |
| 43' | ⚽ | Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
| 68' | ⚽ | Yigit Ali Buz · Hatayspor |
| 72' | ⚽ | Emrecan Bulut · Rizespor |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kerim Alıcı · Hatayspor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ayberk Karapo · Rizespor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 14 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rizespor | Hatayspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Çaykur Didi Stadyumu |
| coach days | 730.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1526.45 | 1427.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.83 | 63.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 53.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 5.88 | 4.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 2.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.46 |