← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, May 30, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.50 |
| Buyuksehyr win | 17% | 6.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray −1.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Buyuksehyr −1.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.32 |
| Under | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.