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Antalyaspor 0–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, May 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Yılmaz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win39%2.40
Antalyaspor win33%2.90
Draw28%3.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +0.2554%1.79
Trabzonspor +0.2546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.75
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

55'⚽Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor
57'⚽John Lundstram · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots10
2On target4
2Corners2
8Fouls18
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days
149.00
90.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.207.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.583.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.51
elo1481.041596.55
elo momentum (last 5)-25.76-24.98
eye test v1-0.930.59
eye trend v10.150.17
first sub minute (last 10)53.4052.00
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.630.63
league points53.0062.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8053.40
rest days6.175.04
scorer concentration0.210.28
season ppg1.231.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.6013.60
skill v1-0.310.71
solidity v1-0.12-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.40
squad age—29.03
state index-0.40-0.35
sterile dominance v10.740.39
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.331.43
xg for avg (last 5)0.541.52