← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 38% | 21% | 2.55 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 35% | 55% | 2.76 | value: +51% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Trabzonspor +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Emre Kılınç · Samsunspor |
| 38' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Trabzonspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Landry Dimata · Samsunspor |
| 52' | 🟨 | Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor |
| 70' | 🟨 | Zeki Yavru · Samsunspor |
| 72' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor |
| 86' | ⚽ | Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor |
| 88' | ⚽ | Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marius Mouandilmadji · Samsunspor |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| 🟨 |
| Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Trabzonspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 85.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1628.41 | 1581.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.05 | 14.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 61.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 29.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.97 |