← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 36% | 25% | 2.73 | fair |
| Konyaspor win | 35% | 49% | 2.81 | value: +37% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Konyaspor +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 40' | ⚽ | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Umut Nayir · Konyaspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fatih Aksoy · Alanyaspor |
| 52' | ⚽ | Umut Nayir · Konyaspor |
| 55' | 🟨 | Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor |
| 84' | 🟨 | Melih Ibrahimoglu · Konyaspor |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Konyaspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu |
| 🟥 |
| Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor |
| 84' | 🟨 | Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Konyaspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 236.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1557.31 | 1523.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.11 | 18.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 59.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 15.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 29.29 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.07 |