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Besiktas 1–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win68%1.40
Draw18%5.28
Rizespor win14%7.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −1.2553%1.85
Rizespor −1.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.41
Under31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Dal Varešanović · Rizespor
31'🟨Attila Mocsi · Rizespor
37'🟨Mithat Pala · Rizespor
39'🟨Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
61'⚽Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
64'⚽João Mário · Besiktas
89'🟨Jonas Svensson · Besiktas
90'⚽Ali Sowe · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
25Shots10
4On target5
6Corners7
9Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
coach days
144.00
724.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.603.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.407.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.033.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.07
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1608.911487.14
elo momentum (last 5)30.5829.67
eye test v11.220.36
eye trend v10.440.73
first sub minute (last 10)46.3048.80
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.811.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.770.64
league points67.0050.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)53.8047.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.43
season ppg1.601.19
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.6013.80
skill v11.01-0.01
solidity v10.450.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)8.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.805.00
squad age30.64—
state index0.740.19
sterile dominance v10.27-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.741.12
xg for avg (last 5)2.191.51