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Rizespor 6–3 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win46%2.12
Draw27%3.50
Goztep win27%3.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.2554%1.83
Goztep −0.2546%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.82
Under47%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Casper Højer · Rizespor
26'⚽Rômulo · Goztep
32'⚽Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
45'⚽ (pen)Rômulo · Goztep
50'⚽Ali Sowe · Rizespor
62'⚽Altin Zeqiri · Rizespor
69'🟨Ogün Bayrak · Goztep
77'⚽Koray Günter · Goztep
85'⚽Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor
87'⚽Altin Zeqiri · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
11Shots20
8On target5
2Corners2
11Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.600.70
cards avg (last 5)3.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days
717.00
564.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.470.68
elo1469.911524.52
elo momentum (last 5)5.0927.18
eye test v1-0.171.36
eye trend v10.300.51
first sub minute (last 10)46.4040.90
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.680.58
league points47.0059.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.0013.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)44.6050.60
rest days8.137.00
scorer concentration0.480.15
season ppg1.151.51
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.2010.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6020.00
skill v1-0.130.11
solidity v10.400.74
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.008.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.807.20
state index-0.050.50
sterile dominance v1-0.38-1.38
threat rate (last 10)0.230.34
threat rate (last 3)0.310.46
threat rate (last 5)0.280.41
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.161.00
xg for avg (last 5)1.261.90