← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 72% | 62% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 22% | 6.22 | value: +37% |
| Eyupspor win | 11% | 16% | 8.77 | value: +38% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eyupspor −1.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fenerbahce −1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |