← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 04:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Hatayspor win | 42% | 2.23 |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ad. Demirspor +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Hatayspor +0.25 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 73% | 1.31 |
| Under | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.