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Goztep 1–1 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Taşkınsoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win76%1.23
Draw13%7.50
Hatayspor win11%10.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −253%1.82
Goztep −247%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over73%1.30
Under27%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Goztep
27'⚽Bilal Boutobba · Hatayspor
75'🟨Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor
78'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
79'🟥Carlos Strandberg · Hatayspor
90'🟨Héliton · Goztep
90'🟨Koray Günter · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
22Shots7
8On target2
9Corners4
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
coach days
557.00
130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.18
dominance (last 5)0.650.41
elo1530.961325.31
elo momentum (last 5)53.30-33.49
eye test v11.410.26
eye trend v10.670.05
first sub minute (last 10)40.0058.10
form points (last 5)13.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.003.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.660.60
league points58.0021.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank5.005.00
matches since clean sheet12.0010.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8082.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8046.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.150.22
season ppg1.530.54
shot diff avg (last 5)9.00-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)19.6013.00
skill v10.04-0.04
solidity v10.67-2.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)8.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.405.00
state index0.79-1.52
sterile dominance v1-1.43-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.340.25
threat rate (last 3)0.460.26
threat rate (last 5)0.410.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.072.56
xg for avg (last 5)1.901.11