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Konyaspor 2–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win37%2.64
Rizespor win34%2.88
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor +052%1.87
Rizespor +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Mithat Pala · Rizespor
47'⚽Umut Nayir · Konyaspor
52'🟨Husniddin Alikulov · Rizespor
71'⚽Dal Varešanović · Rizespor
77'⚽Umut Nayir · Konyaspor
90'🟨Nikola Boranijašević · Konyaspor
90'🟨Deniz Ertaş · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots12
7On target4
5Corners5
14Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.710.65
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu
coach days
221.00
709.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.008.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.063.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.590.47
elo1525.041476.90
elo momentum (last 5)17.1111.12
eye test v10.93-0.12
eye trend v10.420.19
first sub minute (last 10)54.5048.90
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.690.69
league points56.0047.00
league rank9.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8042.20
rest days7.837.00
scorer concentration0.230.50
season ppg1.371.18
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.8012.00
skill v10.59-0.16
solidity v10.850.87
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.80
state index0.56-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.34
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.890.99
xg for avg (last 5)2.311.39