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Gaziantep 0–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win37%2.58
Gaziantep win35%2.81
Draw28%3.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor +052%1.87
Gaziantep +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

52'⚽Andraž Šporar · Alanyaspor
75'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
75'🟨Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor
80'🟥Bruno Viana · Gaziantep
90'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
90'🟨Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target4
2Corners0
13Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.460.71
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days
8.00
69.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)8.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.641.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.480.47
elo1504.801489.06
elo momentum (last 5)-30.70-15.90
eye test v10.08-0.93
eye trend v1-0.210.02
first sub minute (last 10)46.2060.60
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.700.69
league points49.0044.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8083.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6049.20
rest days6.176.17
scorer concentration0.220.31
season ppg1.291.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.009.20
skill v1-0.050.06
solidity v1-1.850.14
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.20
squad age31.06—
state index-0.47-0.59
sterile dominance v1-0.510.73
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.310.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)2.211.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.230.91