← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Metoğlu
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Samsunspor win | 44% | 32% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| Eyupspor win | 28% | 39% | 3.55 | value: +38% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Samsunspor −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Eyupspor −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu |