← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +7% |
| Kayserispor win | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Alanyaspor −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Joseph Attamah · Alanyaspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor |
| 68' | 🟨 | Majid Hosseini · Kayserispor |
| 72' | 🟨 | Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ali Karimi · Kayserispor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | GAIN Park Stadium |
| coach days | 63.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1509.49 | 1575.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.04 | 44.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 31.13 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.80 |