← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 58% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| Alanyaspor win | 18% | 18% | 5.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Alanyaspor −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 7' | ⚽ | Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor |
| 17' | ⚽ | Danylo Sikan · Trabzonspor |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · Alanyaspor |
| 38' | ⚽ | Danylo Sikan · Trabzonspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Janvier · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Hadergjonaj · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 50' | 🟨 | Batista Mendy · Trabzonspor |
| 52' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| ⚽ |
| Andraž Šporar · Alanyaspor |
| 59' | 🟨 | Arseniy Batagov · Trabzonspor |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tonny Vilhena · Alanyaspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1639.32 | 1514.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.63 | -25.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 55.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 29.17 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.86 |